Can the Blue Jays Make the Playoffs? Odds and Chances for 2024

Midway through the 2024 MLB season, the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves in a familiar position.

They’ve shown flashes of brilliance, with an offence that can erupt at any moment and a pitching staff capable of shutting down even the most potent lineups.

However, consistency has been an issue, leading to a few missed opportunities that could have bolstered their standing in the fiercely competitive American League East.

In the coming sections, I’ll delve deeper into the team’s strengths and weaknesses, the challenges in their remaining schedule, and expert insights on whether they can secure a playoff spot.

Current Standings: Where Do the Blue Jays Stand?

The Toronto Blue Jays are well outside playoff contention. They sit in fifth place in the highly competitive American League East with a record of 39-47.

They are currently the only team in their division below .500, giving them slim chances of making the playoffs in the fall.

According to many MLB ranking websites, Toronto has the 9th most difficult strength of schedule remaining, with an average opponent ranking of 14.9.

Recent Performances

June was a mixed bag for the Jays. They won a few pivotal games that kept them in the hunt, but they also lost some tough matches, which prevented them from gaining more ground.

Here’s a look at some key moments:

• Back-to-Back Wins Over the Orioles: To kick off June, the team won back-to-back games over the division-leading Baltimore Orioles, splitting the series 2-2.
• Seven-Game Losing Streak: Conversely, the franchise lost two tough back-to-back sweeps at the hands of the Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Guardians in mid-June.
• Series Wins Against the Yankees: The team then bounced back and won two out of four games from the heavy-hitting Yankees to end the month of June.

Critical Statistics

Statistics are often the best indicators of a team’s playoff potential, and the Blue Jays have several metrics that work in their favour as well as some that do not:

• Offensive Power – Toronto boasts one of the most potent offences in the league, with two players ranking in the top 20 for Batting Average (AVG.) – Vladimir Guererro Jr. (.298) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (.292).
• Pitching Performance – The starting rotation has been solid, with Chris Bassit and José Berríos boasting impressive ERAs of 3.24 and 3.63, respectively. However, the bullpen has been more inconsistent, a factor that could be critical in tight games down the stretch.
• Fielding Blunders – Defensively, they are among the worst teams in fielding percentage (.983). This soft defence provides the Jays pitching staff (which has limited depth) with little room for error.

Blue Jays Playoff Odds and Predictions for 2024

As of November2024, the Blue Jays are in a challenging position regarding their playoff hopes. According to FanGraphs, they currently have a 4.1% chance of making the playoffs.

This reflects their struggle in the highly competitive AL East, where they sit in last place behind the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Tampa Bay Rays.

According to Gamble Ontario’s recommended MLB betting site, BetMGM Sports, the latest betting odds place the Blue Jays at +1100 to make the playoffs. This positions them as heavy underdogs compared to other teams in their division. Even the Red Sox (+180) and Rays (+425) have better odds of making the playoffs.

Season Performance and Predictions

Despite lofty preseason expectations, the Blue Jays have faced consistency issues. Their current record is under .500, and FanGraphs projects them to finish the season with a 77-85 record. This middling performance is a far cry from their potential, especially given their strong roster.

One of the critical factors affecting their push for October is the strength of their remaining schedule. They face a tough slate of games with an average opponent win percentage of .511, tied with the Red Sox and only slightly easier than the Rays’ schedule. Their performance in the coming weeks, particularly against divisional rivals, will be critical.

What Needs to Happen for the Blue Jays to Make the Playoffs?

To make the playoffs, the Blue Jays likely need to win at least 90 games. With the season past its halfway point, every game becomes more crucial. They need to significantly improve their current win total and consistency, especially given the strength of the AL East.

Key Scenarios and Matchups

Division Performance – The franchise needs to improve its performance against AL East rivals. They must aim for a winning record against the Yankees, Rays, and Orioles.

Pitching Staff – Without Manoah for the remainder of the season and with Romano for the next month, the starting rotation of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Jose Berrios needs to maintain its form.

Offensive Consistency – Guerrero Jr. has to return to his slugging ways, while Springer must overcome his recent slump. Additional support by the trade deadline might be necessary.

Upcoming Critical Series:

• Tampa Bay Rays: July 23-25
• Baltimore Orioles: July 29-31
• New York Yankees: August 2-4
• Baltimore Orioles: August 6-8
• Boston Red Sox: August 26-29

AL Wild Card Race

The other teams competing for an AL Wild Card spot will be key to clinching a playoff spot.

Teams from other divisions, such as the Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, and Texas Rangers, are in similar positions as the Jays and should remain in contention for the wild-card round. Toronto needs to outperform these teams to secure a playoff berth.

Past Performance: Blue Jays in the Playoffs

The Blue Jays have had a rich history of successful seasons in Major League Baseball since their inception in 1977.

Here’s a comprehensive overview of the Blue Jays’ past playoff performances:

Back-to-Back World Series Championships (1992-1993)

The Blue Jays’ pinnacle of success came in the early 1990s when they won a pair of World Series titles.

• 1992 World Series – The organization won their first championship against the Atlanta Braves in six games, becoming the first World Series champions outside the United States. Fans still remember Dave Winfield’s game-winning double in Game 6.
• 1993 World Series – The following year, the Blue Jays repeated their success by defeating the Philadelphia Phillies in six games. This series is most famous for Joe Carter’s walk-off home run in Game 6, which remains one of the most iconic moments in baseball history.

Playoff Drought and Return to Postseason (2015-2016)

After becoming World Series champions, the Blue Jays experienced a long playoff drought, not making the postseason again until 2015.

• 2015 ALDS and ALCS – The franchise’s return to the playoffs was dramatic. They won against the Texas Rangers in the ALDS, highlighted by Jose Bautista’s epic bat flip following his decisive three-run homer in Game 5.
• 2016 ALDS and ALCS – The following year, the Jays once again won against the Rangers in the ALDS, sweeping them in three games. They advanced to the ALCS but lost to the Cleveland Indians in five games.

Recent Playoff Appearances (2020 and 2022)

• 2020 Wild Card Series – In the shortened 2020 season, the Blue Jays made the playoffs but lost and were swept by the Rays in the Wild Card Series, losing in two straight games.
• 2022 Wild Card Series – The team returned to the playoffs in 2022 but faced a disappointing exit in the Wild Card Series against the Seattle Mariners. They were swept again in two games.

What MLB Experts Say: Blue Jays’ Playoff Chances

Experts are divided on their chances because the roster is so talented yet inconsistent. If they can capitalize on their remaining games and make strategic acquisitions before the trade deadline, they could still make a push for the playoffs.

However, some expert MLB analysts point out that their inconsistent play and tough schedule make this an uphill battle​.

One American League executive mentioned that the Blue Jays might even consider trading Bichette and Guerrero if the team doesn’t turn its season around.

Given the insights from various experts, I would personally say to avoid betting on the Jays for long-term futures, like making the playoffs and World Series, due to the team’s inconsistent play, the difficulty of their schedule and how much the roster could change in the next month.

Fans should stay tuned and engaged with the latest news and performances, as the situation could rapidly change.

Reference List

Keep reading to find out more about the Blue Jays and their chances of making the playoffs, as well as their performance. I typically rely on trusted MLB sources when compiling MLB betting guides and post-game analysis.

MLB.com – MLB Standings

MLB.com – MLB Injury Report

MLB – Team Fielding Stats

Power Rankings Guru – MLB Strength of Schedule

ESPN – Toronto Blue Jays Schedule

FanGraphs – Toronto Blue Jays

FanGraphs – Playoff Odds

Baseball-Reference – Toronto Blue Jays

BetMGM – MLB Odds